PA.III.A.R3 is associated with which bias?

• A. Selectivity bias.
• B. Confirmation or expectation bias.
• C. Recency bias.
• D. Anchoring bias.

Answer: (B)

This item tests how a bias can steer you to interpret information in a way that confirms what you already expect. Confirmation or expectation bias happens when you seek out, interpret, and remember data so it supports your preconceptions or planned outcome. In flight decision-making, this shows up when you’re planning a flight and you interpret marginal weather, uncertain reports, or borderline data as acceptable because it fits your plan, while you downplay or overlook information that would prompt you to change course or delay.

For example, if you’re set on flying VFR, you might read a ceiling just high enough as fine and ignore a METAR or forecast that suggests deteriorating conditions. That tendency to tilt interpretation toward what you want to happen is what this bias describes, making it the best choice here.

Other biases describe different slips (like focusing on only some cues, giving too much weight to the most recent information, or clinging to the first data you received), but they don’t capture the idea of shaping interpretation to fit an expectation as clearly as confirmation or expectation bias does.